[538 7] Silver did not move his blog to the highest bidder, because he was concerned with maintaining his own voice while gaining the exposure and technical support that a larger media company could provide. [19] In its announcement of its acquisition of FiveThirtyEight, ESPN reported that "Silver will serve as the editor-in-chief of the site and will build a team of journalists, editors, analysts and contributors in the coming months. Silver received bids from several major media entities before selecting the Times. [538 11] Obama won with 365 electoral college votes. All rights reserved. [538 45] All columns from the original FiveThirtyEight were also archived for public access.

Polls policy and FAQs. [55] The website also compiled a list of other predictions made by other people using different methods.

1,384 days 4 years 8 years. Fairness and Accuracy in Reporting, a progressive nonprofit media watch group, wrote in May 2016 that FiveThirtyEight "sacrificed its integrity to go after Sanders" and that they have "at times gone beyond the realm of punditry into the realm of hackery – that is, not just treating their own opinions as though they were objective data, but spinning the data so that it conforms to their opinions. [538 29] Following a number of preview posts in January[538 30] and February,[538 31] Renard Sexton examined subjects such as the UK polling industry[538 32][538 33][538 34] and the 'surge' of the third-party Liberal Democrats,[538 35] while Silver, Sexton and Dan Berman[b] developed a seat projection model. Fair Use Policy [46][d] Silver, along with at least two academic-based analysts who aggregated polls from multiple pollsters, thus got not only correctly predicted all 50 states, but also all nine "swing states". A factual search reveals that FiveThirtyEight has never failed a fact check. Andrew Gelman contributed again in early 2011. However, Silver also remarked, "An equally important theme is the high degree of uncertainty around that outcome. 80. [538 42], In September 2014, Silver put into the public domain all of his pollster ratings,[538 43] as well as descriptive summary data for all of the more than 6,600 polls in his data collection for the final three weeks of U.S. Presidential primaries and general elections, state governor elections, and U.S. Senate and U.S. Congress elections for the years 1998–2012. A poll’s date as listed in the database reflects the median date the poll was in the field — not the date the poll was released. * Polls marked with an asterisk are partisan polls. In 2013, ESPN became owner of FiveThirtyEight and in April 2018 the site was acquired by ABC News. [13], On May 30, 2008, Silver revealed his true identity for the first time to his FiveThirtyEight readers. In 2008, Rasmussen Reports had an apparently short-term partnership with FiveThirtyEight in order to include this unique methodology for generating poll averages in their "Balance of Power Calculator". Sorry, your blog cannot share posts by email. [8], As the primary season was coming to an end, Silver began to build a model for the general election race. [47] In contrast, individual pollsters were less successful. FiveThirtyEight launched its ESPN-affiliated stage on March 17, 2014. [538 37] In the end, Silver's projections were off the mark, particularly compared with those of some other organizations, and Silver wrote a post mortem on his blog. Mr. Sides is also the founder of the blog The Monkey Cage,[43] which was named the 2010 Blog of the Year by The Week magazine". We also rate them High for factual reporting due to proper sourcing of information, a solid record with poll analysis and a clean fact check record. Later posts addressed methodological issues such as the "house effects" of different pollsters as well as the validity of telephone surveys that did not call cell phones. Our model relies mainly on state polls, which it combines with demographic, economic and other data to forecast what will happen on Election Day. (D. Van Zandt 5/16/2016) Updated (2/12/2019), Protecting you from fake news sites since 2015. googletag.cmd.push(function() { googletag.display('waldo-tag-7703'); }); Terms and Conditions

Notice any bugs or missing polls? A substantial percentage of the articles focused on Senatorial races: the runoff in Georgia, won by Saxby Chambliss; recounts of votes in Alaska (won by Mark Begich), and Minnesota (Al Franken vs. 's Ratings Are Substandard and Porous", "In Jobs Data, 'Surprises' Mean Bad News", "A New York Hurricane Could Be a Multibillion-Dollar Catastrophe", "Police Clashes Spur Coverage of Wall Street Protests", "The Geography of Occupying Wall Street (and Everywhere Else)", "Calculating 'House Effects' of Polling Firms", "FiveThirtyEight's Senate Model Is Back And It Gives Republicans The Edge", "Senate Update: Democrats Draw Almost Even. [538 2], In April 2018, it was announced that FiveThirtyEight would be transferred to ABC News from ESPN, Inc., majority owned by The Walt Disney Company. Who’s ahead in all? The website's logo depicts a fox in reference to a phrase attributed to Archilochus: "The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing". Silver identified Cohen as "my news assistant". [538 40][32], Silver responded on 538: "Where's the transparency? [9][10] From that primary election day, which included contests in 24 states plus American Samoa, Poblano predicted that Barack Obama would come away with 859 delegates, and Hillary Clinton 829; in the final contests, Obama won 847 delegates and Clinton 834. See our national polling averages . "I did think there was room for a more sophisticated way of handling these things," Silver said.[13][25]. It's also here [referring to another article], in the form of Pollster Scorecards, a feature which we'll continue to roll out over the coming weeks for each of the major polling firms, and which will explain in some detail how we arrive at the particular rating that we did for each one".

Has this Media Source failed a fact check? "[12] Silver relied on demographic data and on the history of voting in other states during the 2008 Democratic primary elections. The 538 model had forecast a net pickup of 8 seats by the Republicans in the Senate and 55 seats in the House, close to the actual outcome of a pickup of 6 seats in the Senate and 63 seats in the House. [72], Donald Trump won the election. According to Silver's analysis, Strategic Vision's data displayed statistical anomalies that were inconsistent with random polling. Norm Coleman); and the appointments of Senatorial replacements in Colorado, New York, and Illinois. [538 51], While politics and elections remained the main focus of FiveThirtyEight, the blog also sometimes addressed sports, including the March Madness[538 52][538 53][44] and the 2012 NCAA Men's Basketball tournament selection process,[538 54] the B.C.S. [538 16][538 17] He developed a list of 2010 Senate races in which he made monthly updates of predicted party turnover. [16], On June 3, 2010, Silver announced that in early August the blog would be "relaunched under a NYTimes.com domain". Silver pointed out that conflicts with the police caused the sharpest increases in news coverage of the protests[538 65] and assessed the geography of the protests by analyzing news reports of the size and location of events across the United States. In the 2016 primaries, the projections also took into account endorsements. [538 25], FiveThirtyEight covered the November 3, 2009, elections in the United States in detail. ", "Real Oklahoma Students Ace Citizenship Exam; Strategic Vision Survey Was Likely Fabricated", "Strategic Vision Polls Exhibit Unusual Patterns, Possibly Indicating Fraud", "An Open Letter to Strategic Vision CEO David Johnson", "Skipping Elections, Strategic Vision Has Not Polled Since Controversy Arose", "Polling and Voting in Iran's Friday Election", "Independent Voters and Empty Explanations", "UK Seats Projection: Tories 299, Labour 199, LibDems 120", "A Hung Parliament?

Factual Reporting: HIGH election. These include some subscription services, and others from websites that are direct competitors of this one. [4][5] Silver weighted "each poll based on the pollster's historical track record, sample size, and recentness of the poll". District. For example, Rasmussen Reports "missed on six of its nine swing-state polls". We are no longer adding polls or updating averages for Nov. 3, 2020, races. © 2018 ABC News Internet Ventures. Ronald Reagan 1981 … Here's a map of the country, with each state sized by its number of electoral votes and shaded by the leading candidate's chance of winning it. The "538 model" once again aggregated the disparate polls to correctly predict that the Republican Scott Brown would win.

Visit our live blog to follow along as results come in! 's Claims of Financial Distress", "As Mets' Image Slumps, So Does Attendance", "September Collapse of Red Sox Could Be Worst Ever", "The Economics of Blogging and The Huffington Post", "Why S.&P. One approach to this problem was followed by Pollster.com: if enough polls were available, it computed a locally weighted moving average or LOESS. The model got it right. For example, Real Clear Politics simply takes the averages of all polls to come up with a score, whereas 538 uses weights on each individual poll based on demographics and much more. 60. [538 50], On September 12, 2011, Silver introduced another writer: "FiveThirtyEight extends a hearty welcome to John Sides, a political scientist at George Washington University, who will be writing a series of posts for this site over the next month.



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